Dot.Demarche

Talking to myself about foreign policy, US politics, technology, &c.

Consequences pt II

The news looks like Scenario 2. The Grand Ayatollah blessed the results, which means there is no way that the government of Iran will ever willingly recognize a different result.

(breaking news – but might there be a chance the Ayatollah himself could be recalled? Wily old Hashemi Rafsanjani is the head of the group with the power to do so and has a bloody feud with Ahmadinejad)

Let’s assume the electoral coup succeeds.

Results?

1) Ahmadinejad remains in power, but is seen as illegitimate by whatever percentage of the population voted for “the other guy” + whoever gets angry with him.

2) Because of the overt intervention by Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader will himself lose legitimacy.

3) Brutal government intervention against street protests will further alienate people from the regime.

4) Government crackdowns are likely to keep the lid on protests. The whole authoritarian monopoly of power makes it hard for people throwing rocks to face down riot police dressed, according to reports, like spaceship troopers.

All in all, not a recipe for internal Iranian stability. Which could itself reinforce the belligerency of the regime in power – attempting to distract the people from internal problems by uniting against an outside enemy.

UPDATE – Looks like HR could be out. If so, that sounds like an escalation…

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