Dot.Demarche

Talking to myself about foreign policy, US politics, technology, &c.

Bad economy? Throw da bums out! And if you can’t?

A friend forwarded me some analysis from UBS’ China desk. The expert cautioned that economic growth this year might only hit 6.7% in the Middle Kingdom. 

Not too shabby compared to the US – we had an anemic 1.2% last year, and it will probably be significantly negative in 2009. (Though I expect miracles of our new President.)

China’s got a problem, though. With population growth, migration out of the countryside, and the ongoing dismemberment of what remains of the state-owned dinosaurs, Chinese economists see 9% as the real floor to prevent social unrest and make sure there are enough jobs to go ’round.

Here, we just have the habit of taking it out at the ballot box and kicking the bums to the curb.

So whaddya do in China? Considering the ongoing problems of mass incidents and social unrest (for which there are no longer numbers available) there’s some disgruntalment out there. If the CCP can’t deliver on ongoing prosperity, people no longer believe in their ideology, and the government is seen as ridiculously corrupt and ineffective.

Things could get interesting.

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